Regression to Mean
Yesterday, Spanoulis’s performance was subpar, save it for two critical shots, a three pointer and a two pointer right after. While for the whole game his performance was down the rest of the team kept up. And as Stojakovic taught us Olympiacos fans, in such cases all previous missed shots do not matter. Why?
As long as the team kept up without his help, I expected his critical shots to go in. A player’s performance does not vary from his average behavior for long. Coaches know this and that is why they allow the last shot to their star shooter even when on a very bad day. And that is why it does not matter if they miss it. Because their performance will return to their expected level, so the sooner the better. And sooner means take the damn shot.
This note was prompted by the fact that I heard today two other dads discussing those two shots that they did not expect to go in. I did not intervene in the discussion.