There is a view today that both countries and creditors have learned from their mistakes. […] the ability of governments and investors to delude themselves, giving rise to periodic bouts of euphoria that usually end in tears, seems to have remained a constant.
On a more positive note, our research at least raises the question of how a country might “graduate” from a history of serial default. Interesting cases include Greece and Spain, countries that appear to have escaped a severe history of serial default not only by reforming institutions, but by benefiting from the anchor of the European Union.
PDF document: This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises (local copy).